Comments on: AMD vs Intel: the twin monopolies, the future & stocks. http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/ a blog on tomorrow's impact on today. Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:34:02 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 by: Jim http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-429 Fri, 20 Apr 2007 02:56:37 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-429 Don't know what your average purchase price was on AMD, but the game is almost over. AMD's loss was much worse than anyone imagined, but the really important news that was buried in the loss was that Barcelona won't be released until the 3rd quarter. Penryn will be out around the same time to muddy the waters and by the time Barcelona ramps Intel will be rolling out the pr machine on Nehalem. AMD was up in the aftermarket because Hector said he was open to private equity. $16 is best one can hope for now. Don’t know what your average purchase price was on AMD, but the game is almost over. AMD’s loss was much worse than anyone imagined, but the really important news that was buried in the loss was that Barcelona won’t be released until the 3rd quarter. Penryn will be out around the same time to muddy the waters and by the time Barcelona ramps Intel will be rolling out the pr machine on Nehalem. AMD was up in the aftermarket because Hector said he was open to private equity. $16 is best one can hope for now.

]]> by: Jim http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-370 Mon, 02 Apr 2007 18:35:03 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-370 Thanks. AMD has been a scrappy and innovative company for a while now and once they started executing they kicked Intel's butt. Strange as it might seem, IBM might want to put some money behind AMD as well. Thanks. AMD has been a scrappy and innovative company for a while now and once they started executing they kicked Intel’s butt. Strange as it might seem, IBM might want to put some money behind AMD as well.

]]> by: surya.yalamanchili http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-368 Mon, 02 Apr 2007 18:01:16 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-368 Jim, I can't disagree with any of that. Therein lies the risk. I will say (and meant to include it in my post) that AMD has a history of out-innovating Intel on one-quarter the R&D budget. I can't believe that the innovation will stop. But I can't find fault with anything you said. Thanks for the very intelligent, insightful post. Jim, I can’t disagree with any of that. Therein lies the risk. I will say (and meant to include it in my post) that AMD has a history of out-innovating Intel on one-quarter the R&D budget. I can’t believe that the innovation will stop. But I can’t find fault with anything you said. Thanks for the very intelligent, insightful post.

]]> by: Jim http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-367 Mon, 02 Apr 2007 17:44:52 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-367 Here is another scenario: Using massive amounts of cash-flow, Intel continues to lap AMD in shrinking chip nanos thereby increasing profit margins and gradually laps AMD in architecture rather than playing consecutive leap-frog. Outcome, Intel slowly grinds AMD into the dust while remaining profitable. As you say, there are powerful players who have a stake in this fight. AMD needs to raise big cash or seek a deep pocketed partner fast before it is perceived to be in a death spiral by the investment community. Here is another scenario: Using massive amounts of cash-flow, Intel continues to lap AMD in shrinking chip nanos thereby increasing profit margins and gradually laps AMD in architecture rather than playing consecutive leap-frog. Outcome, Intel slowly grinds AMD into the dust while remaining profitable. As you say, there are powerful players who have a stake in this fight. AMD needs to raise big cash or seek a deep pocketed partner fast before it is perceived to be in a death spiral by the investment community.

]]> by: surya.yalamanchili http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-366 Mon, 02 Apr 2007 15:37:52 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-366 Disclosure: I work with Ashwin and I defer to him in all technical matters. But that doesn't mean I won't argue with him : ) I agree that AMD could definitely go the way of LBO. Though it would have to be a LBO who wants to extract and create value, not leverage them up with a ton of debt and sell-- because this company can't handle that. I disagree regarding Intel marketing. I believe that 5-10 years ago you were right. Today, to the average consumer the entire computer is a commodity. This is why manufacturers have dumbed down their website to explain to consumers why they need particular features: they break it down into: basic, video-editing, gaming machine, etc. People have no idea and in fact, don't care. The power users certainly do and they keep track of who has the power/tech lead (currently Intel until Barcelona). You might be right on MSFT becoming closed. I do think they would have to consider creating a closed system (maybe with a partner) because part of their instability as an operating system comes from the fact that they are forced to inter-operate and support so many other people's hardware. Conflicts are bound to produce a blue screen. But I agree with you: open usually (and should) win out. I agree on Apple perception. Though they've backed it up of late, I agree on iPhone. I think it'll be a success, but -nothing- like what they're talking about. Mainly because other devices are pretty damn good today already. Much of what they promised looked cool mainly to people who haven't used a Windows Mobile device, etc. And they're forcing people onto Cingular. It'll be interesting... Disclosure: I work with Ashwin and I defer to him in all technical matters. But that doesn’t mean I won’t argue with him : )

I agree that AMD could definitely go the way of LBO. Though it would have to be a LBO who wants to extract and create value, not leverage them up with a ton of debt and sell– because this company can’t handle that.

I disagree regarding Intel marketing. I believe that 5-10 years ago you were right. Today, to the average consumer the entire computer is a commodity. This is why manufacturers have dumbed down their website to explain to consumers why they need particular features: they break it down into: basic, video-editing, gaming machine, etc. People have no idea and in fact, don’t care. The power users certainly do and they keep track of who has the power/tech lead (currently Intel until Barcelona).

You might be right on MSFT becoming closed. I do think they would have to consider creating a closed system (maybe with a partner) because part of their instability as an operating system comes from the fact that they are forced to inter-operate and support so many other people’s hardware. Conflicts are bound to produce a blue screen. But I agree with you: open usually (and should) win out.

I agree on Apple perception. Though they’ve backed it up of late, I agree on iPhone. I think it’ll be a success, but -nothing- like what they’re talking about. Mainly because other devices are pretty damn good today already. Much of what they promised looked cool mainly to people who haven’t used a Windows Mobile device, etc. And they’re forcing people onto Cingular. It’ll be interesting…

]]> by: ashwin http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-365 Mon, 02 Apr 2007 15:13:59 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-365 I disagree. I think the more likely scenario is AMD getting bought by one of the big LBO kings. It happened with Freescale, no reason to think it wont happen to AMD if the stock dosent go up. AMD has great products, but I think you underestimate Intel's marketing campaign, A lot of non technical people have heard of intel and in the past did not buy a pc if the computer tech at best buy said it wasnt intel. Now this might be changing a bit, but the vast majority of consumers havent heard of AMD. As far as windows/msft becoming a closed system, it will NEVER happen. The reason why I and a lot of other people hate Macs is because its a closed system. It is also the reason why the iPhone, which might cause some initial excitement, will fail long term. It is a closed system. Cellular providers in asia and europe are more successful because they have opened up their pipes. NTT docomo and other phone providers in asia are successful because they have opened up their walls. I think anything that apples touches is perceived as gold. I think the iPhone is apple's first misstep. I disagree. I think the more likely scenario is AMD getting bought by one of the big LBO kings. It happened with Freescale, no reason to think it wont happen to AMD if the stock dosent go up.

AMD has great products, but I think you underestimate Intel’s marketing campaign, A lot of non technical people have heard of intel and in the past did not buy a pc if the computer tech at best buy said it wasnt intel. Now this might be changing a bit, but the vast majority of consumers havent heard of AMD.

As far as windows/msft becoming a closed system, it will NEVER happen. The reason why I and a lot of other people hate Macs is because its a closed system. It is also the reason why the iPhone, which might cause some initial excitement, will fail long term. It is a closed system. Cellular providers in asia and europe are more successful because they have opened up their pipes. NTT docomo and other phone providers in asia are successful because they have opened up their walls.

I think anything that apples touches is perceived as gold. I think the iPhone is apple’s first misstep.

]]> by: Rao Yalamanchili http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-354 Sat, 31 Mar 2007 04:29:16 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-354 I agree with you on AMD.I am adding more AMD to portfolio. It may take another year but it will come back. What is your take on media companies. Which media company you will recommend. Thank you. I agree with you on AMD.I am adding more AMD to portfolio. It may take another year but it will come back. What is your take on media companies. Which media company you will recommend. Thank you.

]]> by: Pawan http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-352 Fri, 30 Mar 2007 20:45:09 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-352 I agree that MSFT will lose it's monopoly over the OS market. Not only that, if tools like word processors and spreadsheets that today run on desktop PC's are easily available on the internet, the PC itself may become redundant. Yes, we would still need a device with which to connect to the internet, but that device need not be a PC. One could do so using a Blackberry. I have already reduced the MSFT holdings in my portfolio. I am upbeat about Web2.0 as well. Especially products like Meebo. Have a great weekend. I agree that MSFT will lose it’s monopoly over the OS market. Not only that, if tools like word processors and spreadsheets that today run on desktop PC’s are easily available on the internet, the PC itself may become redundant. Yes, we would still need a device with which to connect to the internet, but that device need not be a PC. One could do so using a Blackberry.
I have already reduced the MSFT holdings in my portfolio. I am upbeat about Web2.0 as well. Especially products like Meebo.

Have a great weekend.

]]> by: Cincinnati NAMjA http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-351 Fri, 30 Mar 2007 13:34:54 +0000 http://www.suryasays.com/2007/03/29/amd-vs-intel-the-twin-monopolies-the-future-stocks/#comment-351 I would bank on Scenario 3 taking place....thats if I were a betting man. I would bank on Scenario 3 taking place….thats if I were a betting man.

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